Housing Prices under Geopolitical Threats: Transmission Channels of Geopolitical Risk along the EU’s Eastern Border – The Case of Poland

Author: Maria Czech ID

The aim of this paper is to assess the impact of different categories of geopolitical risk (GPR) on housing prices and identify its transmission channels in a border country of the European Union. The analysis focuses on Poland, which constitutes the EU’s eastern border, has the largest and most dynamic housing market in the region, and is directly adjacent to war-torn Ukraine. The study utilises a vector autoregression (VAR) model for diagnostic purposes and a multiple linear regression (MLR) model for identifying the types of geopolitical risk responsible for observed price responses. The VAR results confirmed the existence of an indirect channel (the immigration channel). In the MLR, the aggregate GPR is statistically insignificant, while selected risk categories have a varied impact on the short-term dynamics of housing prices.

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Document Type
article
ISSN
2336-2839
Volume / Issue
13 / 1
Pages
87-101
Date of publication
15.6.2026

Cite this article

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Czech, M. 2026. ‘Housing Prices under Geopolitical Threats: Transmission Channels of Geopolitical Risk along the EU’s Eastern Border – The Case of Poland.’ Critical Housing Analysis 13 (1): 87-101. https://doi.org/10.13060/23362839.2026.13.1.609