Very Long-Term International Housing Price Trends

Against the backdrop of recent global house price inflation, this paper addresses the question commonly asked about asset price booms and crises: ‘Is this time different?’ To identify the distinctive characteristics of today’s house price booms, we examined the long-term history of housing prices in five capital cities: Amsterdam, London, Beijing, Seoul, and Tokyo. Specifically, we employed house price, annual income, and average expenditure data to estimate real house price indices from the 1620s to the 2020s. The findings indicate that recent house price inflation is distinct not in severity but in synchronicity. The amplitude of house price booms and busts has remained consistent. However, house price cycles that historically moved independently have, in recent decades, more often shown similar variations both regionally and internationally. Now, prices tend to rise and fall together, but do not rise above the historical peaks of the past.

1 views

References

Aveline-Dubach, N. 2014. ‘New patterns of property investment in “post-bubble” Tokyo: The shift from land to real estate as a financial asset.’ pp. 90-109 in N. Aveline-Dubach, X. Xiao, S.C. Jou (eds.) Globalization and new intra-urban dynamics in Asian cities. Taipei: National Taiwan University Press.

Bordo, M. D., J. Landon-Lane 2014. ‘What explains house price booms? History and empirical evidence.’ pp. 1-36 in G.P. Kouretas, A.P. Papadopoulos (eds.) Macroeconomic analysis and international finance. Yorkshire: Emerald Group Publishing Limited.

Dorling, D. 2025. The Next Crisis: What we think about the future. NY: Verso.

Eichholtz, P. M. 1997. ‘A long run house price index: The Herengracht index, 1628–1973.’ Real estate economics 25 (2): 175-192. https://doi.org/10.1111/1540-6229.00711

Elliott, L. 2014. ‘A brief history of British housing.’ The Guardian. Retrieved 2 February 2025, from https://www.theguardian.com/business/2014/may/24/history-british-housing-decade

Kohl, S. 2021. ‘Too much mortgage debt? The effect of housing financialization on housing supply and residential capital formation.’ Socio-economic review 19 (2): 413-440. https://doi.org/10.1093/ser/mwaa030

Lamont, D. 2023. ‘What 175 years of data tell us about house price affordability in the UK.’ Schroders. Retrieved 2 February 2025, from https://www.schroders.com/en/global/individual/insights/what-174-years-of-data-tell-us-about-house-price-affordability-in-the-uk/

Lee, H., D. Hong 2022. ‘The Nature of Korean Residential Capitalism: The Financialization of Housing Residence and Housing Investment.’ Space and Environment 81: 9-61. http://dx.doi.org/10.19097/kaser.2022.32.3.9 

Ohnishi, T., T. Mizuno, T. Watanabe 2020. ‘House price dispersion in boom–bust cycles: Evidence from Tokyo.’ The Japanese Economic Review 71 (4): 511-539. https://doi.org/10.1007/s42973-019-00019-6

Piketty, T. 2017. Capital in the Twenty-First Century. Cambridge: Harvard University Press.

Raff, D., S. Wachter, S. Yan 2013. ‘Real estate prices in Beijing, 1644 to 1840.’ Explorations in Economic History 50 (3): 368-386. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eeh.2012.10.003

Ryan-Collins, J. 2021. ‘Breaking the housing–finance cycle: Macroeconomic policy reforms for more affordable homes.’ Environment and Planning A: Economy and Space 53 (3): 480-502. https://doi.org/10.1177/0308518X19862811  

Samy, L. 2015. ‘Indices of house prices and rent prices of residential property in London, 1895-1939.’ Oxford Economic and Social History Working Papers, 134.

Sand, J. 2022. ‘Building Tokyo: social and political histories.’ Journal of Urban History 48 (5): 959-965. https://doi.org/10.1177/00961442221078575

United Nations. 2023. ‘UN expert urges action to end global affordable housing crisis.’ United Nations Human Rights Office of the High Commissioner. Retrieved 2 February 2025, from https://www.ohchr.org/en/press-releases/2023/10/un-expert-urges-action-end-global-affordable-housing-crisis#:~:text=NEW%20YORK%20(20%20October%202023,to%20afford%20their%20housing%20costs

Wigger, A. 2021. ‘Housing as a site of accumulation in Amsterdam and the creation of surplus populations.’ Geoforum 126 (November 2021): 451-460. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geoforum.2020.10.007

Yang, J. 2008. ‘On the sale and the purchase of the residences in the area of Jeongmanseock in the capital Hanseong in late Joseon dynasty.’ Kyujanggak 32: 33-61.

Yoo, H.-J., H.-W. Kim 2020. ‘Changes in Housing Prices During the Late Joseon and Their Significance.’ The Choson Dynasty History Association 95: 313-341. https://doi.org/10.21568/CDHA.2020.12.95.313 

Zhang, L., Y. Yi 2018. ‘What contributes to the rising house prices in Beijing? A decomposition approach.’ Journal of Housing Economics 41 (September 2018): 72-84. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhe.2018.04.003

Please, login first to add a comment.
Document Type
article
ISSN
2336-2839
Volume / Issue
12 / 1
Pages
37-46
Date of publication
16.6.2025

Cite this article

copy
Hong, D. , D. Dorling 2025. ‘Very Long-Term International Housing Price Trends.’ Critical Housing Analysis 12 (1): 37-46. https://doi.org/10.13060/23362839.2025.12.1.585