land markets and housing policy
How the War between Russia and Ukraine Caused a Multi-Cycle in the Polish Housing Market
We examine the effects of the war between Russia and Ukraine on the housing market in the six largest cities in Poland and explain how these effects emerged. Since Poland’s transition to a market economy and its accession to the EU, Poland has experienced normal cycles in house prices, i.e. relatively long periods of increases in house prices followed by similarly long periods of decreases in house prices. However, the combination of the COVID-19 pandemic and the war between Russia and Ukraine created a situation that can be described as a multi-cycle. The pandemic initially halted nearly all transactions on the market, but after a few quarters of fiscal and monetary intervention aimed at saving the economy we observed a housing boom. Just a few quarters later, the Russian aggression in Ukraine caused significant inflation, which required a sharp increase in interest rates, and once again demand slowed down. This was followed just a few quarters later by a resurgence in house purchases in order to escape inflation, with many people using cash for these purchases. This situation has shaken the housing market, while the war has also generated a demographic shock. Construction and transportation workers began returning to Ukraine to help in its reconstruction, while women with children came to Poland from Ukraine seeking safety and creating a demand for rental housing.
The Political Outcomes of Housing Movements: Participatory Governance in Mass Housing Programmes
Research conducted over the past decade examining the impact of social movements on urban politics and housing policy has significantly enhanced our understanding of how these movements resist housing financialisation through direct action, social protest, and advocacy. However, further investigation is still required to comprehend the influence of housing movements on policy design and implementation, in order to understand the paths taken and how social movements shape housing and urban policies. This paper focuses on the self-management branch of the My House, My Life – Entities (Minha Casa, Minha Vida - Entidades), a mass housing programme in Brazil. The paper has two objectives. Firstly, it identifies the strategies that nationally organised urban and housing movements employ to advocate for the inclusion of housing self-management in federal mass housing programmes. Secondly, it examines the policy implications of implementing a participatory governance model (co-management) in national housing programmes, with an emphasis on policy lessons learned. To accomplish this, policy documents, housing movement reports, and news media items were utilised to systematically trace the trajectory to success and examine the policy lessons for participatory governance. This paper makes two contributions: it enriches the literature on social movements against housing financialisation by analysing citizen participation in housing policy design and implementation and it contributes to the field of research on the consequences of social movements by examining the influence of social movements in shaping and housing policies.
Fractured Mobilization: Miami’s Little Haiti Confronts Mega-Real Estate Speculation
Disenfranchised urban communities worldwide are increasingly vulnerable to land dispossession and cultural erasure as neoliberal regimes unleash intensified financial speculation within polarizing and splintering local/global class and racialized disparities. A dilemma of disenfranchised communities when confronting speculative intrusions where prospective allies have become marginalized or eliminated is whether, and to what degree, to resist such threats contentiously at the risk of zero-sum defeat versus accommodative negotiations seeking to rescue modest benefits while mitigating dislocations. The forms and intensities of community responses can be conceptualized as embedded within multiscalar state society and local politico-spatial configurations. From that perspective, I address a predominantly Black immigrant district, Miami’s Little Haiti, as it confronts mega-real estate speculation within a metropolitan political economy of corporate real estate hegemony and accelerating racialized expulsions. The contentious versus accommodative dilemma and local/supralocal political landscape fractured and neutralized the Haitian collective responses. I conclude by discussing the case’s theoretical/comparative implications.
Testing Housing Price Drivers in Santiago de Chile: A Hedonic Price Approach
Hedonic modelling is an empirical analysis technique that is widely used to review the housing market and unpack the main determinants of price. A correct determination of housing price drivers allows a weighted prediction of the value of each dwelling for sale or rent. This paper reviews the fundamental determinants of housing prices that have been published in the literature to see which ones have a better predictive fit for the case of the housing market in the city of Santiago, Chile. From a record of 456,000 property transactions, a dataset composed of 11 explanatory variables is elaborated. Through a semi-logarithmic regression, 4 variables that contribute to explaining the formation of housing prices in Santiago, Chile, are identified. The results indicate that the socioeconomic characterisation of urban areas where housing is traded, the price of copper on the London Metal Exchange, the mortgage interest rate, the age of residential buildings are the main drivers for the main drivers of prices in Santiago. Given the crisis of access to housing in Chile, the article provides relevant information for decision-makers in housing policy.
Sustainable Recovery? Deciphering Hungary’s Residential Property Market before the Pandemic
This paper develops some analytical perspectives for a proper assessment of the dynamics observed on the Hungarian residential property market over the last decade. These dynamics are examined in comparison to official policy objectives. On the one hand, sustainable development and social balance were particularly urgent issues after the last financial crisis. On the other, the residential property market was officially instrumentalised to achieve them. We examined real estate market processes using data from the Hungarian Central Statistical Office and found a change in investment motives and in the main groups of actors dominant in the market, and we also examined the role of foreign investment. At the aggregate national level, the past decade looks like a process of recovery. Nonetheless, the factors relevant for the observable dynamics do not seem to correspond to the goals also formulated in the new constitution, but rather document the investment fever of certain groups.
Airbnb, Platform Capitalism and the Globalised Home
Airbnb, the most ubiquitous of the many online short-term rental platforms offering residential homes to tourists, has infiltrated local neighbourhoods and housing markets throughout the world. It has also divided policy-makers and communities over whether tourism in residential homes is a benign example of the so-called ‘sharing’ economy or a malignant practice which destroys neighbourhoods. These differing positions reflect alternative and changing notions of ‘home’ within wider processes of financialisation and platform capitalism. This paper examines these themes with reference to stakeholder statements solicited in response to government inquiries on how to regulate short-term rental housing in Australia.
Choice or No Choice? Genuine or Fake Choice? – A Qualitative Study for Reflecting on Housing Choice
This paper seeks to reflect on issues related to the nature of housing choice, drawing on qualitative empirical data collected in in-depth interviews. This paper discusses two perspectives related to housing choice, namely, the ‘market perspective of housing choice’ and the ‘perspective of housing choice for well-being’. The ‘market perspective of housing choice’ highlights that desirability generally increases with a greater range of housing choice as the housing supply increases till a climax is reached, after which a further expansion of housing choice may indicate an excess housing supply, which may not be advantageous and home-buyers may instead ‘decide not to choose or buy’. The ‘perspective of housing choice for well-being’ reveals that choice in the housing arena is often viewed as a means to eventual well-being, rather than as an end in itself. Housing choice is ‘genuine’ and ‘meaningful’ if there are meaningful and significant options among a few desirable housing alternatives. ‘Fake housing choice’ involves having to choose from among housing options that are all generally bad.
Informality and Affordability: Approaches from the Global South and Opportunities for the Global North
The changing world economy since the 1970s and the decrease in welfare and deregulation in the Global North have led to an inefficient and declining stock of affordable housing. In the Global South, the need to economically catch up with the Global North has led to a lack of sustainable affordable housing policies. Social and affordable housing policies in the Global South have been either non-existent or very inefficient. The aim of this short paper is to start a discussion (and contribute to the existing ones) on how the social dynamics of informal settlements may be a source of new approaches to the provision of affordable housing in the Global North and South. Despite their illegal status and characterisation as urban blight, informal settlements are frequently illustrative examples of collaborative processes in the areas of planning and development that depend on the social connections and relationships among squatter households.
‘Not for Housing’ Housing: Widening the Scope of Housing Studies
Historically, the main focus of the study of housing in advanced economies has been on houses that meet the accommodation needs of households: houses as the main residence of families. In recent decades there has been the growth in the numbers of houses used for purposes other than as a main residence, for example in the forms of the recent global spread of Airbnb and of foreign engagement in housing as an investment tool. Specifically, the advance of disruptive, financialized technologies in various sectors has meant that alongside a set of ‘for housing’ houses (FHH) another, overlapping, set of ‘not for housing’ houses (NFHH) is emerging. The present paper begins by identifying four types of NFHH, and considers the significance of their growth. It argues that while the NFHH sector is relatively small it has large impacts, and these are such that they challenge housing researchers and policy makers to develop additional ways of looking at housing systems.
Retrenchment and Social Housing: The Case of Finland
About 12 per cent of households in Finland live in social rental housing. The Finnish system of social housing is now facing challenges. Finland has reached a situation where large numbers of social rental dwellings are free from regulation because the state housing loans have been paid off, while new production of such housing is unable to make up for this loss. Potentially this means a decrease in the social rental housing stock. Current housing policy discourse sees social housing more as a failed policy than a necessary welfare measure. Such developments can be related to a larger change in the Finnish housing regime. It has entered a phase of retrenchment, where the government withdraws from its previous commitment to housing provision in order to give more room to market forces. Retrenchment has led to the strengthening of one of the basic features of Finnish housing policy, its selectiveness.
The Swedish Housing Market from a Low Income Perspective
Effects of Housing Prices on Income Inequality in Urban China
This paper explored the effects of housing prices on income inequality in China. By using China''s inter-provincial panel data from 1995 to 2011, we find that both housing prices and long-term mortgage rates are associated with the Gini coefficient of the income of urban residents, and the coefficients of correlation are significant positive. Moreover, a series of housing price control policies promulgated by the Chinese government has worsened the situation and has caused considerable interaction effects on long-term mortgage rates since 2003.
Managing the Land Access Paradox in the Urbanizing World
In the midst of rapid urbanisation and economic growth, the developing world faces challenges in the relationships between land, poverty, and security. Rising social and economic exclusion and insufficient land regulations have spawned an informal housing sector. Given the risk to the broad base of middle- and low-income households in developing countries and the growing demands in urbanising land markets, it is imperative that governments develop a more fine-grained understanding of their land and housing policies. Local authorities must also begin to consider innovative ways to preserve affordability in a market-responsive way. Community land trusts (CLTs) provide one means of resolving the paradox between formalising land ownership and mitigating exclusion from an increasingly unaffordable land market. CLTs seek to balance private property rights, which are the cornerstone of modern land markets and individual wealth, with the affordability and accessibility needs of the community.